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AdvancedStock Alerts + Tools0:45Macro

The Signal With No Timetable

An inverted curve has preceded recessions with a good record and terrible timing, which makes it a warning rather than a trigger.

0:45 · 6 scenes

This lesson is part of a Stock Alerts + Tools plan.

What the lesson covers

  1. 0:00The inverted yield curve has an excellent record and dreadful timing.
  2. 0:05The mechanism. Long yields fall below short ones when the market expects the Fed to be cutting.
  3. 0:14The record. It has preceded most recent US recessions. The lead time has been wildly inconsistent.
  4. 0:23Why the timing ruins it. Sitting in cash for two years waiting has its own very real cost.
  5. 0:32Which spread. Different pairs invert at different times, so people argue about which one counts.
  6. 0:40Treat it as a change in the weather, not a departure time.
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Educational content only. MadStockAlerts provides market commentary, research, and educational content. It is not personalized investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading and investing involve substantial risk, including loss of capital. See the Risk Disclosure and Customer Agreement.
Educational content only. MadStockAlerts provides market commentary, research, and educational content. It is not personalized investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading and investing involve substantial risk, including loss of capital. See the Risk Disclosure and Customer Agreement.
The Signal With No Timetable — MAD Academy Training Video · MadStockAlerts