IntermediateMAD Academy0:46Macro

The Chart That Is Not a Promise

The dot plot shows where each official thinks rates should go, anonymously and without commitment — which is why it moves so much.

0:46 · 6 scenes

This lesson is part of a MAD Academy plan.

What the Lesson Covers

  1. 0:00The dot plot is not a plan. It is a snapshot of opinions.
  2. 0:05What it is. Each official marks where they think the rate should be. Anonymous, and non-binding.
  3. 0:14Read the spread, not the median. A tight cluster is a committee that agrees. A wide one means the path is uncertain.
  4. 0:24Why it moves markets. Prices already embed a path. The dots either confirm it or contradict it.
  5. 0:33The record. The dots have been a poor forecast of actual policy, repeatedly.
  6. 0:41Read it as today's opinion, priced against yesterday's expectation.
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Educational content only. MadStockAlerts provides market commentary, research, and educational content. It is not personalized investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading and investing involve substantial risk, including loss of capital. See the Risk Disclosure and Customer Agreement.
Educational content only. MadStockAlerts provides market commentary, research, and educational content. It is not personalized investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading and investing involve substantial risk, including loss of capital. See the Risk Disclosure and Customer Agreement.
The Chart That Is Not a Promise — MAD Academy Training Video · MadStockAlerts