FoundationsMAD Academy0:46Macro

Two Surveys That Disagree

The payrolls number and the unemployment rate come from two different surveys, which is why they sometimes tell opposite stories.

0:46 · 6 scenes

This lesson is part of a MAD Academy plan.

What the Lesson Covers

  1. 0:00The jobs report contains two numbers from two entirely different surveys.
  2. 0:05The two sources. One asks businesses how many people they employ. The other asks households.
  3. 0:15Why they can conflict. Someone taking a second job adds to payrolls without changing the unemployment rate.
  4. 0:24The participation trap. The rate can fall because people gave up looking, which is not good news.
  5. 0:33The revisions. The first print is an estimate. Revisions of a hundred thousand are routine.
  6. 0:41Read both surveys, and expect the first number to change.
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Educational content only. MadStockAlerts provides market commentary, research, and educational content. It is not personalized investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading and investing involve substantial risk, including loss of capital. See the Risk Disclosure and Customer Agreement.
Educational content only. MadStockAlerts provides market commentary, research, and educational content. It is not personalized investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading and investing involve substantial risk, including loss of capital. See the Risk Disclosure and Customer Agreement.
Two Surveys That Disagree — MAD Academy Training Video · MadStockAlerts