The whole library
12 articles
Clear filtersThe FOMC and the Dot Plot
Eight scheduled meetings a year set policy. The projections published at four of them are the most scrutinised chart in macro, and the most over-interpreted.
PCE: The Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge
The measure the Federal Reserve actually targets. It differs from CPI in ways that matter, and it consistently reads lower.
Gross Domestic Product
The broadest measure of economic output. Comprehensive, and released so late that markets have usually worked out the answer already.
The Dollar and Equities
A stronger dollar mechanically reduces the reported earnings of US multinationals and tightens conditions globally. The relationship is real and it is not constant.
Oil and Commodity Shocks
Energy is an input to nearly everything, which makes a large oil move a shock that propagates through inflation, consumption and policy at once.
Which Calendar Events Actually Move Markets
Dozens of releases appear on an economic calendar each week and a handful matter. Knowing which, and why the reaction depends on the surprise, is most of the value.
ISM and PMI Surveys
Diffusion indices built from surveys of purchasing managers. They measure the breadth of change rather than its size, which is what the fifty level means.
Retail Sales
A monthly measure of spending at retailers. Consumption is most of the economy, which makes this one of the most closely watched releases and one of the noisiest.
Housing Data
A set of monthly releases covering construction, sales and prices. Housing is the most rate-sensitive part of the economy, which makes it an early indicator of policy taking effect.
Consumer Confidence and Sentiment
Surveys asking households how they feel about conditions and prospects. What people say and what they do have diverged substantially for long periods.
Fiscal Policy and Deficits
Spending and taxation decisions made by government rather than by a central bank. They affect growth directly and reach the bond market through issuance.
Other Central Banks
Policy is set in several places at once, and the differences between them drive currencies, capital flows and the conditions faced by companies operating across borders.