Retail Sales
A monthly measure of spending at retailers. Consumption is most of the economy, which makes this one of the most closely watched releases and one of the noisiest.
MadStockAlerts Research · Updated August 28, 2026
What to take away
- It measures spending at retail establishments, not all consumption.
- It is reported in nominal terms, so inflation is included.
- The control group excludes the most volatile components and feeds GDP.
- Revisions are frequent and can be substantial.
- Seasonal adjustment matters enormously for months containing holidays.
MAD Academy Training Video · 0:45
Two Thirds of the Economy
Consumption dominates GDP, so retail sales is one of the few monthly numbers that genuinely tracks the whole economy.
This lesson is part of a Stock Alerts + Tools plan.
What it covers, and what it does not
| Included | Excluded |
|---|---|
| Retail stores and online retailers | Most services, which are the larger share of consumption |
| Motor vehicles and parts | Housing, healthcare and education |
| Restaurants and bars | Utilities and insurance |
| Gasoline stations | Financial services |
The right column matters. Services are the majority of household spending, so a measure covering retail is a partial view of consumption rather than a summary of it.
Nominal, not real
The headline is reported in dollars without adjustment for prices. In a period of high inflation, spending can rise in this series while the quantity of goods bought falls.
Scroll the chart sideways to see all of it.
- Nominal retail sales
- Adjusted for prices
The control group
The control group excludes automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services. Those are the components most affected by price swings and by one-off factors, and the remainder is what feeds the consumption estimate in GDP.
This is why the market reaction sometimes ignores the headline entirely. A strong headline driven by a jump in gasoline prices contributes nothing to the control group, and the control group is the number that reaches the growth forecast.
Why it is noisy
- Weather affects a month's retail activity substantially and is not adjusted for.
- The timing of holidays relative to the survey period shifts spending between months.
- Seasonal adjustment factors are large for months containing major holidays.
- Revisions to prior months are routine and can be larger than the current month's change.
As with the jobs report, the revision to previous months is frequently the more informative part of the release and receives a fraction of the attention.
What it does not capture at all
Because the series covers retail establishments, several substantial categories of household spending are outside it entirely, and their absence shapes what the number can be used for.
- Housing costs, which are the largest single item in most household budgets.
- Healthcare, which is a large and growing share of consumption.
- Education, insurance and most financial services.
- Travel and many other services, beyond restaurants.
Services are the majority of consumption and are largely absent, which means a period in which households shift spending from goods to services shows up as weak retail sales and unchanged total consumption.
That shift occurred substantially in the years after the pandemic and produced exactly that pattern: a retail series suggesting weakness alongside consumption data suggesting the opposite. The personal consumption expenditures data covers both and is published later.