Housing Data
A set of monthly releases covering construction, sales and prices. Housing is the most rate-sensitive part of the economy, which makes it an early indicator of policy taking effect.
MadStockAlerts Research · Updated August 28, 2026
What to Take Away
- Permits, starts and completions describe different stages of construction.
- Permits lead, because they precede everything else.
- Existing home sales are recorded at closing, so they reflect decisions made months earlier.
- New home sales are recorded at contract signing, which is more current.
- Housing responds to mortgage rates faster than almost anything else.
MAD Academy Training Video · 0:46
The Most Rate-Sensitive Thing There Is
Housing responds to interest rates faster than almost anything else, which makes it an early read on whether policy is working.
This lesson is part of a MAD Academy plan.
The construction sequence
| Series | What it records | Position in the sequence |
|---|---|---|
| Building permits | Authorization to build | First. The most forward-looking |
| Housing starts | Construction begun | Weeks to months after a permit |
| Under construction | Work in progress | The stock being built |
| Completions | Finished units | Months to a year after a start |
Because the stages are separated by months, the series describe different points in the same pipeline. Permits falling while completions rise is an ordinary state of affairs and describes a pipeline emptying.
The two sales series
| Existing home sales | New home sales | |
|---|---|---|
| Recorded at | Closing | Contract signing |
| Lag to the decision | Typically one to two months | Minimal |
| Share of the market | The large majority | A small fraction |
| Revisions | Modest | Large, on a small sample |
The recording point is the reason the two can appear to contradict each other. Existing home sales in a given month reflect decisions made when mortgage rates were different, and new home sales reflect decisions made in the month itself.
Why housing leads
A change in the policy rate reaches mortgage rates quickly, and a change in mortgage rates changes the monthly payment on a new purchase immediately. That transmission is faster and more direct than almost any other channel.
Scroll the chart sideways to see all of it.
- 30-year mortgage rate, percent
- Existing home sales, indexed
Prices, and their lag
House price indices are published with a substantial lag and are constructed from repeat sales over a multi-month window. They are among the slowest series in the whole macro calendar.
That lag connects directly to the shelter component of inflation. Housing costs enter the price indices through a rent measure that reflects leases signed months earlier, which is why the inflation data keeps describing a housing market that has already moved on.
The affordability arithmetic
Housing activity responds to the monthly payment rather than to the price, and the payment is a function of both. That is why activity can fall while prices hold.
| Price | Rate | Approximate monthly payment on a 30-year loan |
|---|---|---|
| $400,000 | 3% | About $1,690 |
| $400,000 | 5% | About $2,150 |
| $400,000 | 7% | About $2,660 |
| $320,000 | 7% | About $2,130 |
The last row is the point. A twenty percent fall in price is required to return the payment to where a two-point rise in rates took it from, which is why transaction volumes adjust long before prices do.
It also explains the lock-in effect: existing owners holding a low fixed rate face a much higher payment on an equivalent property, which reduces the supply of homes for sale and supports prices even as activity collapses.
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