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IntermediateStock Alerts + Tools0:46Markets

The Most Watched Line in Finance

The yield curve plots what the government pays to borrow across time, and its shape is a picture of what the market expects.

0:46 · 6 scenes

This lesson is part of a Stock Alerts + Tools plan.

What the lesson covers

  1. 0:00One line, plotting what the government pays to borrow across time.
  2. 0:05The normal shape. Longer loans normally pay more, because more can go wrong over more years.
  3. 0:15When it inverts. Short rates above long ones means the market expects cuts, which means trouble.
  4. 0:25Why anyone would accept less. Locking in today's rate makes sense if you expect rates to be much lower soon.
  5. 0:33The honest caveat. Inversions have preceded recessions, with long and very inconsistent lags.
  6. 0:41Read the shape as an expectation, not a schedule.
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Educational content only. MadStockAlerts provides market commentary, research, and educational content. It is not personalized investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading and investing involve substantial risk, including loss of capital. See the Risk Disclosure and Customer Agreement.
Educational content only. MadStockAlerts provides market commentary, research, and educational content. It is not personalized investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading and investing involve substantial risk, including loss of capital. See the Risk Disclosure and Customer Agreement.
The Most Watched Line in Finance — MAD Academy Training Video · MadStockAlerts