AdvancedStock Alerts + Tools0:46Quant

Fitting the Noise Perfectly

More parameters always fit history better and usually predict worse, and the gap between the two is the whole problem.

0:46 · 6 scenes

This lesson is part of a Stock Alerts + Tools plan.

What the lesson covers

0:00Add enough rules and any strategy fits the past perfectly.
0:05The divergence. Fit to history keeps improving while performance on new data starts falling.
0:15How it happens innocently. Not by cheating. By trying variations and keeping whichever looked best.
0:24The robustness test. A real edge degrades gently when you change a parameter. Noise collapses.
0:33The defence. Fewer parameters, an economic reason for each, and data you never looked at.
0:41Prefer a plateau to a peak, and justify every parameter.

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