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AdvancedStock Alerts + Tools0:46Quant

The Past Is Easy to Beat

A backtest is a claim about a strategy that was designed after seeing the data, and there are several specific ways it inflates.

0:46 · 6 scenes

This lesson is part of a Stock Alerts + Tools plan.

What the lesson covers

  1. 0:00Any backtest can be made to look good. The past is fully known.
  2. 0:05The main inflators. Each of these adds return that will not be there when you trade it.
  3. 0:15The subtle one. Reusing the same data to test many ideas. Eventually one of them fits by luck.
  4. 0:24The tell. Look for a suspiciously smooth equity curve and oddly specific parameter values.
  5. 0:33The minimum standards. Full costs, point-in-time data, and out-of-sample validation. All three.
  6. 0:41Ask how many ideas were tested before this one.
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Educational content only. MadStockAlerts provides market commentary, research, and educational content. It is not personalized investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading and investing involve substantial risk, including loss of capital. See the Risk Disclosure and Customer Agreement.
Educational content only. MadStockAlerts provides market commentary, research, and educational content. It is not personalized investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading and investing involve substantial risk, including loss of capital. See the Risk Disclosure and Customer Agreement.
The Past Is Easy to Beat — MAD Academy Training Video · MadStockAlerts