FoundationsStock Alerts + Tools0:45Psychology

Skill and Luck Look Identical Early

A run of wins feels like evidence of skill, and it is exactly the moment position size tends to increase.

0:45 · 6 scenes

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What the lesson covers

0:00Five wins in a row feels like skill. It is far too small a sample to be.
0:05The sample problem. Five wins from a coin flip happens about three percent of the time. Regularly.
0:14What it changes. Confidence rises, size rises, and the process quietly gets shorter.
0:23The asymmetry. Small wins at small size, then one large loss at large size. The maths is brutal.
0:32The mechanism. Fix maximum size in advance so a hot streak cannot change it.
0:40Let a winning run change nothing about your size.

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