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Risk

Position Sizing

Position sizing is choosing how many shares to trade so that a stopped-out trade loses a fixed, chosen amount. It is separate from what to trade, and it decides whether a losing run is survivable.

Foundations5 min read
Risk

Stop Losses: Types and Placement

A stop loss is a price set in advance at which a position is closed because the reason for it no longer holds. Where it sits should follow from the chart's structure rather than a preferred dollar amount.

Foundations6 min read
Risk

Risk and Reward

The risk-reward ratio is the distance to a target divided by the distance to a stop. It is useful for comparing opportunities, and meaningless without a realistic probability of reaching each.

Foundations5 min read
Risk

Diversification and Correlation

Diversification only works to the extent holdings move differently. Counting positions is not the measure; correlation is.

Intermediate4 min read
Risk

Drawdown and the Arithmetic of Recovery

A drawdown is the fall from a peak to a later low. Recovering takes a larger gain than the loss (a 50 percent loss needs a 100 percent gain), and the asymmetry worsens quickly as losses deepen.

Foundations4 min read
Risk

Expectancy and Win Rate

Win rate is the share of trades that make money, and on its own it says little. Expectancy combines it with the sizes of wins and losses to give the average result per trade, the number that decides everything.

Intermediate5 min read
Risk

Liquidity and Slippage

Slippage is the gap between the price on the screen and the price actually filled. In thinly traded stocks it is frequently larger than the edge the strategy was pursuing.

Intermediate5 min read
Risk

The Real Cost of Trading

Commission is usually the smallest cost and the only visible one. The spread, the slippage and the tax treatment are larger and mostly invisible.

Intermediate4 min read
Risk

Writing the Plan Down

A trading plan is a written set of rules for entries, exits, position size and account limits. A plan held only in memory changes to fit whatever is tempting; writing it down makes it a constraint.

Foundations5 min read
Risk

The Kelly Criterion

A formula for the position size that maximizes long-run growth. Mathematically clean, extremely sensitive to inputs nobody knows, and almost never used at full size.

Advanced3 min read
Risk

Scaling In and Out

Building or reducing a position in pieces rather than at once. It changes the distribution of outcomes and it is frequently confused with averaging down.

Intermediate3 min read
Risk

Hedging

Taking an offsetting position to reduce an exposure. Every hedge costs something, and the cost is frequently less visible than the risk it removes.

Advanced3 min read
Risk

Portfolio Heat

The total amount at risk across every open position at once. Individually sensible positions can add to an exposure nobody chose.

Intermediate2 min read
Risk

Tail Risk

The rare, large losses that dominate long-run outcomes. Standard risk measures are built on a distribution that understates exactly these events.

Advanced3 min read
Risk

Correlation Between Strategies

Running several methods at once diversifies only to the extent they fail at different times. Most methods within one style fail together.

Advanced3 min read
Risk

Day Trading, Swing Trading and Position Trading

Day trading opens and closes a position within one session, swing trading holds for days to weeks and position trading for months. The holding period decides which risks, costs and rules apply.

Foundations4 min read
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