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IntermediateStock Alerts + Tools0:46Risk

Being Right Is Not the Goal

Expectancy combines how often you win with how much you win, and it is entirely possible to be right most of the time and lose money.

0:46 · 6 scenes

This lesson is part of a Stock Alerts + Tools plan.

What the lesson covers

  1. 0:00You can win seventy percent of your trades and still lose money.
  2. 0:05The formula. Win rate times average win, minus loss rate times average loss.
  3. 0:14The high win rate that loses. Seventy percent wins of one, thirty percent losses of four. Negative.
  4. 0:24Why win rate is seductive. Being right feels good, and cutting winners early raises it while destroying expectancy.
  5. 0:33The sample size problem. Twenty trades tell you almost nothing. Expectancy needs a real sample.
  6. 0:41Track expectancy, and stop congratulating yourself on the win rate.
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Educational content only. MadStockAlerts provides market commentary, research, and educational content. It is not personalized investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading and investing involve substantial risk, including loss of capital. See the Risk Disclosure and Customer Agreement.
Educational content only. MadStockAlerts provides market commentary, research, and educational content. It is not personalized investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading and investing involve substantial risk, including loss of capital. See the Risk Disclosure and Customer Agreement.
Being Right Is Not the Goal — MAD Academy Training Video · MadStockAlerts