The coil after the fall

What the Lesson Covers

1. 0:00After a hard fall, price stops moving. Not a bounce — a coil, tightening bar by bar.
2. 0:06The shape. Lower highs and higher lows drawn as two converging lines, with volume drying up to a fraction of what the decline traded. The range closes toward a point.
3. 0:17Why it forms. Buyers step in a little higher each time and sellers offer a little lower. The triangle is that disagreement compressing until one side stops.
4. 0:27The levels that matter. The decline sets the scale, the two lines set the boundaries, and the last lower high is where the drawing stops describing anything real.
5. 0:37Where it completes. A close below the rising lower line completes it, and because that line climbs each bar, the level is different today from yesterday. Above the last lower high, it is over.
6. 0:48How often it follows through. Sixty to sixty-six per cent continued lower. That is the honest end of a range the literature usually quotes far more generously.
7. 0:57The same shape failing. The expensive failure is the coil that was really a base. The break finds nobody selling, and price reverses straight back through the ceiling.
8. 1:08The tells. Heavier volume on the up bars inside the coil, a break that closes back inside, or a coil that has now outlasted the decline itself.
9. 1:18A contraction tells you how big. Only the decline suggests which way.