AdvancedPremium8 min read

Scenario Analysis: Building the Forecast

A forecasting workbench for one company: fifty-seven assumptions, a projected statement and cash flow, and three valuations of the result. Every number on it is a consequence of what you entered.

This guide is part of Premium Membership.

What Is in This Guide

  • The tab has no view. It starts from the company's last filed year and everything after that is your assumption.
  • One evaluation feeds the whole page, so the statement, the charts and the three valuations always agree with each other.
  • Three methods are shown because their disagreement is information that one blended number hides.
  • The reverse solve is the only figure on the tab that describes the market rather than your model.
  • The checks flag assumptions that are demanding, never assumptions that are wrong.
  • A value per share produced here is arithmetic over your inputs, not a valuation of the company and not a target.
  • The result card leads with what the price assumes against what you assume, and shows the value as a range rather than a point.

8 sections

  1. 1What the tab is for
  2. 2The cards
  3. 3Where the starting point comes from
  4. 4The two revenue engines
  5. 5Where the cash goes: the balance-sheet roll
  6. 6Why three valuations and not one
  7. 7The two readings that stop a model fooling you
  8. 8What a number on this tab is, and is not
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