Intermediate7 min read

The Bull Pennant Set-Up

The same pause as a bull flag drawn as a triangle rather than a channel: the highs step down, the lows step up, and the range squeezes toward nothing.

MadStockAlerts Research · Updated September 4, 2026

What to take away

  • A pennant converges. A flag runs parallel. That difference is the whole distinction between them.
  • The squeeze is the point — a range collapsing is disagreement being resolved, not a market going quiet.
  • The upper line is the reference the set-up completes through, and it falls a little every bar.
  • The last low inside the triangle is where the reading stops holding.
  • A pennant that runs on and on stops being a pause and becomes a triangle in its own right.

MAD Academy Training Video · 1:24

When the range squeezes to nothing

A pennant is a flag whose pause has no direction. Why the contraction matters more than the outline, and why the trigger level moves every bar.

This lesson is part of a Stock Alerts + Tools plan.

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The shape

A sharp advance, then a pause in which each rally stops a little lower and each dip stops a little higher. Drawn, that is two converging lines and a range that halves and halves again over a handful of bars until there is barely a range left.

It is a bull flag with one difference, and it is a real one. A flag's pause has a direction; a pennant's pause has none. The market is not giving ground, it is running out of anything to argue about, and the resolution comes because there is no room left rather than because a boundary gave way.

  • A steep, high-volume advance immediately before the triangle begins.
  • At least two lower highs and two higher lows, so both lines have something to be drawn through.
  • A range that measurably contracts bar by bar rather than simply staying narrow.
  • Volume draining away into the apex, usually more sharply than in a flag.
Illustrative price chart18.826.133.340.647.9Last higher lowVolumeThe poleRange halving, volume drainingCompletes above the upper line

Scroll the chart sideways to see all of it.

The pole, the range squeezing between two converging lines, and the resolution out of the top. An illustrative teaching diagram built from a hand-authored price path, not any real security's prices.

Why it forms

The advance created a disagreement about price. Some holders think the run has gone far enough and sell into every rally, which is what puts in the lower highs. Others think it has further to go and buy every dip a little earlier, which is what puts in the higher lows.

A converging range is that argument narrowing. Each side is conceding a little ground to the other every bar, and the volume drying up says fewer people are still willing to trade at any of the prices on offer. Something has to give, and the shape is what the argument looks like just before it does.

A contraction is stored energy in a very literal sense: the range a market has been trading in is the range it will be measured against when it stops. That is why pennants resolve quickly and why the resolution is usually larger than the pause that preceded it — but it is also why they resolve in either direction, and the pattern's direction is inherited from the pole rather than proven by the triangle.

What to look atSet-up intactSet-up failing
The range, bar to barContracting steadily into the apexWidening again, or simply flat
Volume through the pauseDraining away, often to a fraction of the polePicking up on the down bars
Where the pause sitsIn the upper half of the poleSliding back toward where the pole began

The price points that define it

A set-up is a shape plus a handful of prices. The shape is what makes it recognisable; the prices are what make it something that can be measured, reviewed afterwards and argued about honestly. These are the levels this one is read from.

LevelWhere it sitsWhat it tells you
The poleFrom the base of the advance to the triangle's first barWhat the measured objective is scaled to, and the reason this counts as a continuation shape at all.
The upper lineDrawn through the lower highsThe moving reference the set-up completes through. It sits lower every bar, which is why a late break needs less of a move than an early one.
The lower lineDrawn through the higher lowsThe rising floor of the argument. Losing it is the first sign the contraction is resolving the other way.
The last lowThe final higher low before the breakThe invalidation point most descriptions use, because it is the last price at which the higher-lows sequence was still true.

Where the set-up completes

  1. 1The triggerThe set-up completes on a close above the upper line. Because that line descends, the level is not a fixed price and has to be re-read each bar, which is the practical difference from a flag. The convention wants volume to return on the break; a pennant that resolves on the same drained volume it contracted on is the version that most often fails.
  2. 2Where the reading stops holdingThe reading stops holding below the last higher low. At that point the lower boundary has been lost and the sequence the triangle was drawn from is no longer true, so the drawing describes something that has already stopped happening.
  3. 3The measured objectiveThe conventional measured objective adds the height of the pole to the break. A second convention adds the width of the triangle at its base instead, which gives a smaller and more conservative number; both are in general use and they frequently disagree, which is worth knowing before either is quoted.
  4. 4Through the moveThe convention expects the resolution to be quick. A pennant that breaks and then hangs around just above the line for several bars has usually lost whatever the contraction stored, and the apex itself is a soft deadline — a triangle that runs all the way into its point tends to resolve limply, if at all.

Each of these describes where a convention puts a level, not what anybody should do at it. Whether a level is worth acting on at all is a question about position size, cost and the rest of a plan, and the answer differs for every account.

How often it follows through

Followed throughAt least 61 in every 100 that completed
Did notUp to 39, and usually quickly
0% of completed set-ups100%
A conservative band, not a forecast. 61–67% of set-ups that completed continued in this direction before returning through the invalidation level.

The strongest readings come from short pennants — under three weeks on a daily chart — that follow a genuinely steep pole and break with volume. Long, drifting triangles that happen to sit after an advance are much weaker and are the main reason this band is not higher.

Read that as a floor rather than an expectation. A set-up that follows through two times in three still leaves one in three that does not, and the one that does not can move further and faster than the two that did. That arithmetic is what position sizing exists to answer, and no pattern improves it.

What this number is not

It is not our record, it is not a forecast for any particular chart, and it is not the rate at which the measured objective is reached — that is always lower. It is a conservative reading of how often a completed bull pennant kept going before it went back through the level that invalidates it. Base rates move with the market, the timeframe and the exact definition used, and every one of those varies.

What failure looks like

Two failures, and they look nothing alike. The first is the apex failure: the triangle runs out of room, drifts through its own point and dissolves into a range, with no break in either direction worth the name. The second is the false break, where price clears the upper line on thin volume, cannot hold it, and resolves down through the lower line instead — often faster than the upside break would have been.

  • The triangle has lasted longer than the pole that produced it.
  • Price is more than two-thirds of the way to the apex with no resolution.
  • The break clears the upper line but volume stays at pause levels.
Illustrative price chart20.225.330.435.440.5Last higher lowVolumeClears the line on nothingResolves through the higher lowsinstead

Scroll the chart sideways to see all of it.

The same contraction, resolving through the lower line after a break of the upper one failed to hold. An illustrative teaching diagram of the same shape, drawn to show the failure rather than the success.

Seeing it on a live chart

Draw the two lines yourself on a chart that has just run and paused. The exercise that teaches the pattern is not finding one, it is finding out how many pauses will not take a pair of converging lines at all — most of them are flags, and a few are nothing.

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