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Quantitative Easing and Tightening
Buying or running off bonds to influence longer-term rates, used when the policy rate alone is insufficient. It affects the long end, which the funds rate reaches only indirectly.
Advanced4 min read
Macro
Yield Curve Inversion as a Recession Signal
Short yields above long ones has preceded every modern US recession. The record is genuinely striking and the lag is long enough to make it close to useless for timing.
Advanced4 min read
Macro
Money Supply
Aggregate measures of money in the economy. Their relationship to inflation is theoretically clear, empirically unstable, and the subject of a long argument.
Advanced3 min read
Macro
Financial Conditions Indices
Composites combining rates, spreads, equity prices and the currency into a single measure of how easy it is to obtain financing.
Advanced3 min read