Defaults and Recovery
A default is a failure to meet the terms of the indenture, which is not always a failure to pay. What holders recover depends on their position in the capital structure.
MadStockAlerts Research · Updated August 29, 2026
What to take away
- Default is defined by the indenture and includes technical breaches.
- Expected loss is the probability of default multiplied by the loss given default.
- Recovery rates vary enormously by seniority and by whether the debt is secured.
- Default rates are strongly cyclical and cluster in downturns.
- Restructuring outside bankruptcy is common and produces its own outcomes.
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Default Is Not Zero
A default is a missed payment rather than a total loss, and what a holder gets back depends almost entirely on where they sat in the queue.
This lesson is part of a Stock Alerts + Tools plan.
What counts as a default
The indenture defines the events of default, and missing a payment is only one of them. A technical default arises from breaching a covenant without any payment being missed.
- Failure to pay interest or principal when due, usually after a stated grace period.
- Breach of a financial covenant tested periodically.
- Failure to deliver financial statements within a required period.
- Cross-default triggered by a default on other debt.
- Bankruptcy or insolvency proceedings.
The third item is a real category. A company late in filing its accounts can breach an indenture even while paying every coupon on time, which is one reason a delayed filing is watched by credit holders as well as by equity holders.
Expected loss
expected loss = probability of default x (1 - recovery rate)
- the recovery rate is the proportion of face value ultimately received
- a 3 percent default probability with a 40 percent recovery implies an expected loss near 1.8 percent
The decomposition explains why two bonds with the same default probability can trade at very different spreads. A secured bond with a high expected recovery carries a lower expected loss than a subordinated one from the same issuer.
Recovery, by position
| Position | Historical recovery, broadly |
|---|---|
| Secured bank debt | Frequently 60 to 80 percent |
| Senior secured bonds | Often around half or more |
| Senior unsecured bonds | Historically around 40 percent on average |
| Subordinated bonds | Substantially lower, often under 20 percent |
| Preferred equity | Usually near zero |
| Common equity | Usually zero |
These are broad historical averages across many cases and the dispersion around them is enormous. Recovery in any individual case depends on the assets, the jurisdiction and the negotiation, and averages are a poor guide to a single outcome.
Scroll the chart sideways to see all of it.
Clustering, and restructuring
Defaults are not independent events. They cluster in downturns, when the same conditions affect many issuers simultaneously, and recovery rates fall at the same time because assets are being sold into a weak market.
That correlation is the reason credit risk cannot be diversified away as completely as the arithmetic of independent defaults would suggest. The bad outcomes arrive together, which is precisely when a portfolio can least absorb them.
Many situations are resolved outside formal bankruptcy through a distressed exchange, in which holders accept new securities worth less than the original claim. These count as defaults for most measurement purposes, and they are a substantial share of the total in some cycles.
What happens to a bond in a restructuring
Default is the beginning of a process rather than an outcome, and the process determines what holders receive.
- 1An event of default occursA missed payment, a covenant breach, or a filing.
- 2The bonds repriceTo an estimate of recovery, frequently within days, and they continue to trade.
- 3Holders organiseCommittees form by class, since classes have different claims and different interests.
- 4A plan is negotiatedIn or out of court, exchanging claims for cash, new debt, or equity in the reorganised company.
- 5Distributions are madeIn order of priority, which is where the capital structure decides everything.
The second step is why distressed debt exists as an asset class. A defaulted bond continues to trade, and its price is a market estimate of the eventual recovery rather than a mark of zero.